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06.02.18 USD Index May Hold Its Breath Once More

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating sideways in fourth wave of an Elliott Wave impulse wave. This sideways consolidation could be an Elliott Wave triangle pattern. When wave (iv) finishes, that means we will anticipate a fifth and final wave to new lows. We believe this last push into new lows may set the stage for the largest US Dollar Index rally since January 2017.

gallery/usd-index-holding-breath-once-more-57-jwweb_body_dollarindexelliottwavecountfeb52018

Applying the Elliott Wave principle to the chart above, we can see a sideways consolidation in wave (iv) that may carry further this week. Fifth wave measurements stretch down to 87.40 so we will look for signs of a reversal should DXY make it that low. Once the fifth wave is in place, we anticipate a rally back up towards 95-98 that reflects the largest rally since January 2017.

EUR/USD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS SHOWS REVERSAL LOOMING

The mirror opposite is taking hold within EUR/USD. EURUSD has recently pressed new highs. It appears to us that wave (iii) within circle wave ‘v’ was extended as wave (iii) was 2.618 times the length of (i).

gallery/usd-index-holding-breath-once-more-57-jwweb_body_eurusdelliottwaveanalysisfeb52018

If indeed EUR/USD has just finished the third wave of an Elliott Wave impulse pattern, then the fourth wave is currently underway. After a little more sideways consolidation, we are anticipating another run towards the 1.25-1.26 highs. The final high in wave (v) would finish a three year long Elliott Wave expanded flat pattern on EUR/USD.

EURUSD SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

EURUSD continues to spark bullish signals through its sentiment reading. This reaffirms that we may see some more strength in EUR/USD prior to a meaningful reversal. The current live sentiment reading for EURUSD is -2.21. Sentiment is used best as a contrarian tool, which is a bullish signal for EURUSD now.

If wave (v) embarks higher, look for sentiment to shift towards bulls to help confirm the wave five top as sentiment is a contrarian tool. This bullish shift could be structured with bears giving up or the number of traders net-long increasing (or a combination of both).