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04.12.18 11.19 USDJPY Technical Analysis: Inability to Break Higher Keeps Eyes on Lower

USDJPY ELLIOTT WAVE TALKING POINTS:

  • USD/JPY is pressing the upper bounds of a shorter term bearish pattern
  • Anticipate a bearish reversal from nearby levels that may drive USDJPY to 111 and possibly 108
  • A break above 114.27 negates this pattern and we’ll reconsider further bullish opportunities

USD/JPY has been remained relatively supported for the past 2 months. Our recent post on USDJPY Elliott wave from November 8 was that we were anticipating a bearish turn near 114. We did get a brief dip lower beginning November 12 that has since popped back higher. Bigger picture, we think USDJPY is in a downward corrective cycle since October 3 that may drive the pair towards much lower levels.

THE CURRENT ELLIOTT WAVE FOR USDJPY

New to Elliott wave corrective patterns? On page 5 of our Elliott wave advanced guide, we explain Zigzag’s and where they commonly occur.

We are anticipating an a-b-c zigzag pattern lower that began October 3. This zigzag pattern would make up the ‘E’ leg of a larger triangle pattern that began from the 2015 high. We believe the ((b)) leg of the zigzag completed on November 12 and that USDJPY prices are slowly working themselves lower. We are counting the current rise of USD/JPY to be wave (ii) of ((c)) meaning wave (iii) lower may begin from nearby levels.

If this pattern is the correct one, then USDJPY will continue to move lower in wave ((c)) of E that retests the 111 lows and possibly lower levels.

WHY DOES ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY IDENTIFY A REVERSAL NEAR CURRENT LEVELS?

Since the trend that began November 12 appears to be a bearish impulse wave into the November 20 low, it is highly probable that the current rise stops prior to the 114.27 high which is near where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is.

If USD/JPY does move lower, we would first like to see the orange support channel broken to alert the possibility of a new bearish trend. Similarly, if we see live client sentiment turn positive, then that would add additional confirmation for the potential of a deeper move lower. Current client sentiment is at -1.4 as only 42% of traders are long.

If USDJPY does continue higher and break above 114.27, then this Elliott wave pattern is voided, and we will consider other alternate counts such as a more complex ‘D’ leg of a larger triangle pattern.

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SP 500 rallied but still holds below recent resistance.

Cryptocurrencies fall as they search for a base of support. The Elliott wave analysis has us searching for reversals.

The video above is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from December 3, 2018. We focused on the Elliott Wave and patterns for key markets such as SP 500, NASDAQ, DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, Ether, Ripple, Gold, crude oil, and Natural Gas.

S&P 500 ELLIOTT WAVE CHART STUCK IN THE MIDDLE

In last week’s webinar, we noted wrote how S&P 500 pattern walks the ledge as it was possible a large correction may take place. If the sell off did not occur, that did not negate the potential for a deep contraction, but would delay it and elevate the potential for new highs.

Since then, S&P 500 has rallied but it has not broken any meaningful levels. The Elliott wave picture noted below is the bearish count. It implies a bearish reversal below 2941 for an eventual breakdown below 2551.

If S&P 500 breaks above 2941, then we will consider a bullish alternative that implies the market is rallying in wave ‘3’ of (5).